Monthly inbound cargo volume at the US major container ports could see a near-record surge this month as retailers bring in merchandise ahead of a potential strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports this fall, according to the recent Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are concerned by the possibility of a strike at ports on the East and Gulf coasts because contract talks have stalled,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

“Many retailers have taken precautions including earlier shipping and shifting cargo to West Coast ports. We hope to see both sides resolve this issue before the current contract expires because retailers and the economy cannot afford to see a prolonged strike. This comes on top of ongoing disruption issues including the attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Vessel diversions have led to increased shipping times and costs and have led to equipment shortages and congestion in Asian ports.”

The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East Coast and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire on September 30. Negotiations have broken down and the ILA has threatened to strike in October if a new contract is not reached by then.

Read also: Maersk CEO downplays likelihood of East Coast ILA strike

“Importers are continuing to grow their inventories and are shifting cargo to the West Coast as a precaution against potential labour disruptions,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We calculate that the shift has pushed the West Coast share of cargo we track to above 50% for the first time in over three years.”

The report said that US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million TEU in June, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 3.6% from May and up 17.7% year over year. That brought the total for the first half of 2024 to 12.1 million TEU, up 15% over the same period in 2023. (The totals include estimates for the ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami, which have not reported TEU counts for June.)

Ports have not yet reported July’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that volume shot up to 2.34 million TEU, up 22.1% year over year and the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022. August is forecast to also total 2.34 million TEU, up 19.2% year over year.

September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 6.5% year over year; October at 2.09 million TEU, up 1.7%; November at 1.98 million TEU, up 4.4%, and December at 1.94 million TEU, up 3.5%. Those numbers would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Monthly inbound cargo volume at the US major container ports could see a near-record surge this month as retailers bring in merchandise ahead of a potential strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports this fall, according to the recent Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are concerned by the possibility of a strike at ports on the East and Gulf coasts because contract talks have stalled,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.

“Many retailers have taken precautions including earlier shipping and shifting cargo to West Coast ports. We hope to see both sides resolve this issue before the current contract expires because retailers and the economy cannot afford to see a prolonged strike. This comes on top of ongoing disruption issues including the attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Vessel diversions have led to increased shipping times and costs and have led to equipment shortages and congestion in Asian ports.”

The contract between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the United States Maritime Alliance covering East Coast and Gulf Coast ports is set to expire on September 30. Negotiations have broken down and the ILA has threatened to strike in October if a new contract is not reached by then.

Read also: Maersk CEO downplays likelihood of East Coast ILA strike

“Importers are continuing to grow their inventories and are shifting cargo to the West Coast as a precaution against potential labour disruptions,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “We calculate that the shift has pushed the West Coast share of cargo we track to above 50% for the first time in over three years.”

The report said that US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million TEU in June, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 3.6% from May and up 17.7% year over year. That brought the total for the first half of 2024 to 12.1 million TEU, up 15% over the same period in 2023. (The totals include estimates for the ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami, which have not reported TEU counts for June.)

Ports have not yet reported July’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected that volume shot up to 2.34 million TEU, up 22.1% year over year and the highest level since the record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022. August is forecast to also total 2.34 million TEU, up 19.2% year over year.

September is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 6.5% year over year; October at 2.09 million TEU, up 1.7%; November at 1.98 million TEU, up 4.4%, and December at 1.94 million TEU, up 3.5%. Those numbers would bring 2024 to 24.9 million TEU, up 12.1% from 2023.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail – will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.